US electronics importers are still riding waves of replenishment after a boom in imports last year, but US tariffs are already affecting the costs consumers will pay.

The Trump administration’s tariffs will challenge growth in the sector and likely raise costs for consumers despite exclusions from tariffs for several electronic products, including laptops and smartphones manufactured in China.

The array of tariffs facing US trading partners has electronic manufacturers rethinking pricing and rollouts given how dependent they are on the Chinese market.

The White House is considering a new tariff on products containing semiconductors, which are used in everything from automotive engines to computers and phones to the fancier range of espresso makers.

The uncertainty created by proposed tariffs that remain undefined plays an even bigger part in deliberations about whether to push the “pause” button on imports or move ahead.

The delayed launch of the Nintendo Switch 2 gaming console provides an early example.

For a brief time, fans of Mario, Luigi and Donkey Kong thought they might have to pay more and wait longer for the new gaming console, a critical product for Kyoto, Japan-based Nintendo.

The company initially scheduled pre-orders for the Switch 2 to begin on April 9 but delayed the order launch until April 24 due to uncertainty caused by the tariffs.

On April 18, Nintendo said Switch 2 pricing would remain unchanged at $499.99 per unit, but prices for some accessories will be adjusted due to “changes in market conditions.”

Those changes are the uncertainty of US tariffs. On April 2, President Donald Trump imposed a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japan, but that levy was suspended for 90 days on April 9.

Japan, similar to most of the world, still faces a 10% baseline tariff and 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum and cars and automotive parts.

Goods imported from China face a combined tariff of 145%.

The tariffs threaten to short-circuit the market for containerized electronic imports, which shot up 9.4% in 2024 to reach nearly 1.8 million TEUs. That rebound after two years of declines topped the 1.7 million-TEU record set in 2021, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global.

The tariffs and proposed tariffs could derail forecasts for higher electronics sales in 2025 — if consumers decide the higher retail prices aren’t worth paying.

“Consumers remain very price sensitive — something that will be further amplified by uncertainty surrounding potential trade and economic disruptions,” Paul Gagnon, vice president and technology industry advisor for research company Circana, said in a statement earlier this year.

‘Refresh wave’ coming

Circana, formerly IRI and the NPD Group, in January forecast an additional $1.8 billion in spending on electronics, a 1.6% year-over-year gain. Computers, portable audio devices and televisions were expected to contribute 70% of the increase.

Much of the increase will be driven by a “refresh wave,” Circana said, as consumers replace older electronics with more powerful personal computers and larger screen TVs.

Since January, consumers have become even more price sensitive. Surveys of consumer confidence and expectations have dropped significantly, alarming economists. That refresh wave could be shallower than expected.

Even so, US consumers show no sign they’re sated with electronic gadgetry, especially the computers, tablets and smartphones embedded in daily life. New products and features such as artificial intelligence capabilities may convince them to spend more.

But the upper limits of their discretionary spending remain to be tested — especially when a video game console is priced at $500.

China, Vietnam make gains

Despite tariffs and the threat of tariffs, China remains the largest single source of US electronics imports.

China even increased its share of US electronics imports in 2024, pushing it up 0.5 percentage point to 45.47%, according to data from PIERS. That figure is down substantially from 56.2% in 2019, a sign of long-term decoupling from the US market.

Vietnam’s share of the US electronics market also increased 0.5 percentage point to 15.77%; back in 2019, Vietnam had a 7.19% share.

The next largest source of US electronics imports, Thailand, increased its market share last year to 6.65% from 6.2% in 2023, according to the PIERS data. South Korea and Malaysia, the next largest players, saw their market share shrink slightly to 5.49% and 3.34%, respectively.

The rest of the world, including Japan, saw their US market share in electronics slip to 22.3% in 2024 after rising to 22.5% in 2023, losing some share to China and Vietnam.

Those figures could change in 2025 as high tariffs on Chinese products that aren’t excluded discourage the shipment, as well as the purchase, of cheaper electronics. Some of these goods, however, may be cheap enough that even tariffs won’t deter their sale.

William B. Cassidy, Senior Editor | Apr 22, 2025, 12:37 PM EDT