US soybean shippers are encouraged that US-China trade talks may reopen access to their largest market, but they say a deal won’t stop increased competition from exporters in Argentina aided by a planned US bailout of the Argentine peso.

While most soybeans move via bulk vessels, the approximately 50,000 TEUs of containerized soybeans exported to China annually provide needed backhaul cargo for carriers.

China’s tariffs of 34% on US soybeans virtually killed shipments to China so far this year — through September, US containerized soybean exports totaled just 5,134 TEUs, down 89% from the first nine months of 2024, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global — but a thaw might be in the works.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is a soybean farmer, said Sunday he anticipates China will now make “substantial” purchases of US soybeans following the administration’s announcement of a trade truce with Beijing. However, the US and China have yet to work out the details of potential tariffs.

Whatever the outcome, agriculture shippers fear US exports will be further threatened by the emergence of Argentina as a competitor in the Chinese market.

“China already purchases a lot of soybeans from Argentina,” Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, told the Journal of Commerce Friday. “US exporters say the US is now facilitating Argentina to be a bigger exporter.”

Steenhoek was referring to the administration’s plan to bail out Argentina’s currency, along with the September announcement by Argentina President Javier Milei that he was suspending the country’s 26% tax on exports of grains.

Because farmers harvest their soybean crops in the fall, the fourth quarter is normally the busiest time of the year for exports. But according to weekly sales data from the US Department of Agriulture Foreign Agriculture Service, the US has sold zero soybeans to China since Sept. 9.

Soybean exports from Brazil normally fall off in the fourth quarter, Steenhoek noted, which in past years opened the door for US growers.

“The US should be the supplier that steps in now, but not this time,” Steenhoek said.