Gains in market share, especially in both sea and air logistics, will help Kuehne + Nagel outperform growth in the wider freight forwarding sector, senior company executives said Tuesday.

CEO Stefan Paul said the company is aiming for growth of one and a half times the market rate, equal to average GDP growth, between now and 2030.

“For sea and air logistics, our reference metric is volume growth; for road and contract logistics, it is net turnover growth,” Paul said during the company’s capital markets day in London.

But K+N is also forecasting a more subdued 2025, with earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of between $1.7 billion and $2 billion. That compares with EBIT of $1.9 billion last year.

“The lower end of our guidance reflects an increased level of uncertainty at this relatively early stage of the year 2025,” CFO Markus Blanka-Graff said during Tuesday’s event.

Company executives admitted they were over-optimistic how the market would develop after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic when they targeted EBIT growth of 17% to 19% between 2019 and 2024. Actual average growth was 11%, and while that was an improvement compared with pre-pandemic growth rates, “it means we are clearly tracking below our expectations,” Paul said.

He said the new growth targets are based on three assumptions. Aside from global long-term economic growth, they comprise increasing supply chain complexity due to trade barriers and other disruptions in supply or demand, and further market consolidation “because scale matters.” Paul said while K+N will focus on organic growth, it will also make bolt-on acquisitions “if they make sense,” such as the prior takeovers of Apex Logistics, US drayage firm IMC and Canadian customs broker Farrow.

Commenting on the growth targets, Paul indicated that Kuehne + Nagel had already taken on new air freight customers in the fourth quarter because of DSV’s agreement to acquire DB Schenker. And he expects a major shift in customers will come after that deal is completed, saying a combined DSV-Schenker could lose between 20% and 25% of its business to other logistics providers, mostly in the second half of this year.

That is largely due to shipper procurement policies and governance issues in terms of how much business they can allocate to one provider rather than quality or service issues, Paul added.

Expanding in smaller markets

Michael Aldwell, K+N’s executive vice president of sea logistics, said the company would intensify its focus on key trades such as the trans-Atlantic, intra-Asia and Asia to North America and Europe, especially in areas such as healthcare, consumer goods, high-tech and industrial.

“We will expand our network in smaller markets where we find attractive growth potential,” Aldwell said. “So far, we are now serving 41 new markets since the beginning of 2023, out of the initial goal of 50 by 2026.” At least another 20 new markets will be added in the next few years, including in Japan, Central Europe and Central and Latin America, he said.

The forwarder is also increasing its focus to attract more small and medium-sized firms, which currently account for about 49% of its customer base.

Yngve Ruud, K+N’s executive vice president of air logistics, was confident about the air freight outlook, with global volumes expected to increase 3% between 2025 and 2028.

“Demand will exceed capacity in specific regions and trade lanes,” Ruud said, without giving details. He expected the forwarder would also meet its earnings growth target by launching new services for shippers later this year and in 2026, including “an end-to-end cool corridor in health care.”

Keith Wallis, Special Correspondent | Mar 25, 2025, 2:01 PM EDT