US retailers Friday indicated they remain bullish about cargo volumes arriving at US ports for the next several months despite new tariffs on China and the threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, upgrading their forecast for imports through April.

The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published monthly by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), expects imports for February to record a marginal gain of just 0.2% from a year ago, but that’s an upgrade from the 4.5% decline forecast in the January GPT.

Likewise, the February GPT forecasts an 11.1% increase in US imports for March, up from a projected 10.6% increase in the previous report. For April, the GPT now expects year-over-year volume growth of 8.2%, up slightly from January expectations of 8%.

The import forecast for May saw a slight downward revision, with expectations now for 5.4% growth year over year versus the prior forecast of 5.9%.

“Retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including frontloading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF, said in a statement accompanying the February GPT.

While January data is still being finalized, the NRF said it expects that US ports handled 2.11 million TEUs in imports, up 7.8% from January 2024 but down from expectations of a 10% bump.

Meanwhile, retailers said the preliminary 2.14 million TEUs in imports handled by US ports in December would be a 14.4% year-over-year increase and the busiest December ever.

Watching US tariffs

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said port cargo “could be badly hit” if tariffs on Asian and European countries increase prices and prompt US consumers to buy less.

In addition to the 10% tariffs on China that went into effect this week, President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, then promptly suspended them for 30 days.

Hackett said any North American tariffs would “initially have minimal impact at ports” because most imports from Canada and Mexico enter the US via truck, rail or pipeline.

“At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to know if the tariffs will be implemented, removed or further delayed,” he said. “As such, our view of North American imports has not changed significantly for the next six months.”

The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts.

Laura Robb, Associate Editor | Feb 7, 2025, 2:32 PM EST