US freight demand enters 2026 with import container volumes in retraction and surface freight demand in a three-year slump. 

Container volumes will be flat to down next year, according to forecasts from S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s, while truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) operators steel themselves for another so-so year.

US air cargo growth is declining, with volumes down on a year-over-year basis for six straight months through October, according to the International Air Transport Association. Intermodal growth, meanwhile, has notably fared well, rising in the mid-single digits. 

Importantly, and despite negative headlines on unemployment and retail confidence, economists expect the US economy to muster on, most likely avoiding a recession. US real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 2.2% in 2026 after climbing 2% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2024, according to economists from S&P Global, the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.  

But while the US economy expands, US inventory levels are not. And following months of frontloading imports, US retailers and other importers are replenishing gingerly. US inventory levels mildly expanded in November, according to the Logistics Managers Index. But companies have plenty of incentives to keep inventories lean, as the index shows that carrying costs have been increasing monthly since the beginning of 2025.  

Attention is focused on US consumers as they show signs of cutting back amid stubborn inflation. The major consumer pricing indicators — via the University of Michigan’s index and the Consumer Board’s survey — paint a picture of an increasingly jittery consumer, a picture that is no longer exclusive to low-income Americans. The latest US unemployment numbers from the US Labor Department show hiring expanded in October, but at a slower pace, while more workers are staying put in their current roles.

As economists question whether the near-unstoppable US consumer is finally pulling back as tariff costs increasingly show in store prices, another major generator of freight is showing signs of sputtering. New US manufacturing orders in November fell to their lowest point since May, according to the US manufacturing ISM.

Warehouses ‘filled with unsold stock’

A Conference Board survey on Nov. 22 revealed that falling US consumer confidence had reached its lowest since April, when the US began its tariff onslaught.

“Manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global. “For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data was available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.” 

Another major driver of freight demand — housing — isn’t looking too good, either. Privately owned housing starts were down 11.1% year over year in August, the latest month for which data is available from the US Census Bureau following the US government shutdown. 

The US economy in 2026 “entirely hinges on the housing industrial complex unlocking itself, and I don’t see that happening quickly,” Jason Miller, a Michigan State University supply chain professor, told the Journal of Commerce. Interest rates need to drop to allow house buyers to unlock lower financing, he said. 

Keith Prather, co-founder and managing partner of consultancy Armada Corporate Intelligence, has a more positive outlook but doesn’t expect an immediate jolt to the economy. 

“There are a lot of different moving parts in the US economy right now,” Prather said. He pointed to the reshoring of manufacturing in the US as a trend that will — eventually — create more domestic freight demand, although not in the short term. 

Feel familiar?  

The weakening demand indicators and downbeat freight forecasts suggest a first half of 2026 that resembles much of 2025. The for-hire trucking ton-mile index inched up just 0.4% in the first eight months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.  

The supply-demand imbalance in trucking seemed to become more punishing as 2025 progressed, with little sign of a resolution or turning point ahead. 

“We really thought toward the end of last year, 2024, that we had reached an equilibrium,” said Jeff Tucker, CEO of Tucker Company Worldwide, the largest family-owned US freight brokerage. “We felt 2025 showed some promise ... [but] nobody saw the breadth and depth of the impact of the tariff regime. “

Despite the slump, intermodal volume has been resilient. Domestic container volume, excluding trailers, rose 3.5% year over year between January and October, while international intermodal increased 4.3% during the same period, according to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).  

Intermodal demand in 2026, though, will continue to be heavily tied to tariffs, trucking and ports. There is a strong nexus between international intermodal and Asian imports to West Coast ports. Domestic intermodal demand is often tied to how easy it is to procure trucks and how much cost is a factor in procurement decisions. If tariffs, for example, are squeezing overall margins, then a shipper might convert less service-sensitive freight to intermodal to meet their budget targets. 

Lurching into 2026 

No import growth is rare in US ocean shipping. There have been just two periods in which US containerized import volumes have declined to the extent seen in recent months, said analyst John McCown. The most recent was in the spring of 2020, when retailers and other importers slashed orders on fears that retail consumption would plunge in the early days of the pandemic, and the first was 2008–09 in the wake of the financial crisis, he said. 

“I think we’re looking at perhaps the worst performance year that I can recall, in 2026, in terms of volume growth,” McCown said. 

S&P Global Ratings on Dec. 10 forecast that US container volumes will be down 2% in 2026 from 2025, while Moody’s Ratings on Nov. 20 predicted flat to negative import volume growth. The S&P Global outlook calls for a rebound in volume of 6% in 2027 on the hopes of a more stable trade policy.

For all of 2025, imports are estimated to be down 1.4% from 2024 at 25.2 million TEUs, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

US retailers are signaling they will be keeping volumes at a significant year-over-year deficit at least through April. Volumes in January, February, March and April are expected to be, respectively, 10.3%, 8.5%,16.8%, and 11% lower than the corresponding months in 2025, according to the Global Port Tracker, which is created by Hackett Associates on behalf of the NRF.

Port operators, too, are budgeting for declines or only slow growth in 2026. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said in November it is budgeting for total container volumes of 8.5 million TEUs in 2026, which would be just over a 2% decline from 2024. Since 2016, NY-NJ port container volumes have grown at an annual average of 4.2%.

Remarkably, US containerized exports have been resilient. Volumes in the first nine months of 2025 were up 2.1% from a year earlier, with containerized agricultural exports 1.2% higher in the same period, according to the latest available data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. In a twist of trade, US export growth is outpacing gains in imports, or a lack thereof.