The container shipping industry is on track for a profitable year, although not as strong as 2024, as higher operating expenses dampen rate momentum driven by tariff uncertainty, according to analysts.

Among nine publicly traded ocean carriers, revenue for 2025 is expected to reach $138.2 billion, according to Capital IQ Estimates, down from $155.5 billion reported for 2024. Capital IQ is a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global.

The main driver for last year’s results were steadily strengthening freight rates spurred by resilient consumer and industrial demand, with the Platts Global Container Index rising from $2,300 per standard container to almost $5,000 by the end of 2024. And while rates remain elevated, particularly in the trans-Pacific, the outlook for earnings is dimmer. Industry-wide net income is expected to be $11.6 billion in 2025, compared with $28.6 billion in 2024, data from Capital IQ Estimates shows.

After most carriers reported first-quarter earnings for 2025, analysts trimmed collective earnings forecasts for ocean carriers by $600 million since the beginning of April. Even with the recent tariff turmoil, most ocean carriers saw few, if any, market catalysts to create a repeat of 2024.

Other industry watchers also see a tougher comparison for ocean carriers this year. Alphaliner noted the average first-quarter operating margin for ocean carriers fell to 18.1%, the lowest in four quarters. Maritime consultancy Drewry sees operating profit for the container shipping industry falling to $20 billion this year, down from about $50 billion in 2024.

Ocean carriers are flagging higher operating expenses in 2025 as ships get delayed and the costs of container repositioning become more burdensome. Hapag-Lloyd highlighted a 9% increase in handling and haulage costs for the first quarter, primarily because of having to secure storage for empty containers and higher drayage expenses for door moves.

Muted rate outlook

While higher freight rates can offset those increases, carrier chief executives remain cautious on how far the current rally will go. Maersk Chief Executive Vincent Clerc offered a forecast of global container demand ranging anywhere from a decline of 1% to growth of 4% during the company’s second-quarter earnings call on May 8, down from a forecast of 4% in February.

Clerc said President Donald Trump’s trade policies are forcing more Maersk customers to reconsider where they source goods. While some shippers highly dependent on China are looking to frontload goods, others are drawing inventory in North America or looking at how to exit China.

“The increased macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties since we shared our guidance in February inevitably affects our outlook for the rest of the year, especially on the back of the escalation we saw of the US-China trade tensions as well as the unresolved questions around the other tariffs currently under the 90-day reprieve,” Clerc said.

Even though container freight bookings out of China saw a resurgence following the 90-day tariff reprieve, Hapag-Lloyd Chief Executive Rolf Habben Jansen said during a May 14 earnings call he expects only a “little bit of a surge” over the next two or three months.

He said Hapag-Lloyd is maintaining its current 2025 outlook based on the “assumption that we expect to see freight rates declining based on the trends that we have seen in the market over the last couple of months.”

“I think [the] demand trend for 2025 at the moment is pretty uncertain,” Habben Jansen said. “We see new developments every day. I think the only thing we know for sure is that the first quarter was pretty good.”